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Technology news and Jobs arrow Fuzzy Logic arrow Blu-ray to defeat HD DVD within a year?
Blu-ray to defeat HD DVD within a year? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alex Zaharov-Reutt   
Saturday, 17 March 2007
If you believe the Blu-ray camp, not only will Blu-ray be the dominant format outselling DVDs within three years, but HD DVD will be defeated within a year – can it be true?

At CeBIT’s massive technology tradeshow in Hannover, Germany, the Blu-ray and HD DVD camps are slugging it out for supremacy in the next generation movie disc space, each claiming fantastic results and predicting victory – but can only one side be right or can two formats co-exist?

Today, we live in a world of multiple formats in PCs, digital camera memory cards, operating systems, power plugs and chargers, even types of fuel for our cars, including petrol (gas), diesel, liquefied natural gas (LNG), ethanol blended fuel and even electricity itself, either in hybrid cars, or more intelligently, in purely electric vehicles with no fossil fuel tanks whatsoever.

But in the world of movie formats, which last saw a major war during the early days of Betamax and VHS, the VHS video cassette was the clear consumer winner, with the improved quality of digital DVDs taking over, especially once the price of DVD players dropped dramatically and all movie studios released all their new titles on those shiny new DVDs.

The succession plan was meant to be simple – a next-generation high-definition disc that could deliver the up-to 1080p resolution that today’s flat screen TVs are capable of displaying, with crisp and clear video that totally outclasses standard definition DVDs and the ever degrading quality of VHS video tapes.

But after just a few months, despite Blu-ray titles and Blu-ray players outselling their HD DVD equivalents in the US, there is still no clear and absolutely certain sign that Blu-ray will win over the HD DVD format, with many things really complicating the picture this time.

One is the cheaper cost of producing content for HD DVD players, the other is the lower cost of HD DVD burners for PCs and the cheap US $100 add-on for the Xbox 360, which is claimed to be the best selling accessory for the Xbox 360 yet, although you’d have thought an extra controller would have taken that particular record.

Both sides offer superlative video quality, with HD DVD claiming you’ll get “the look and sound of perfect” while the Blu-ray team says you’ll get the best “hi-def experience”, meaning picture quality between the two should be roughly the same.

The HD DVD camp has seen the great results of Blu-ray in the US, with more players sold, and five times the Blu-ray movies sold (compared with HD DVD movies) as well, especially with the PS3 having now sold almost 2 million players in the US alone, and with the PS3 onslaught in Europe, Australasia, the Africas and the Middle East due to be unleashed from March 23 onwards, putting millions more Blu-ray capable PS3s in the hands of owners worldwide.

To that end, the HD DVD camp has announced they are spending US $300 million on a marketing campaign to remind users that they believe HD DVD will be the winning format in this unwanted format war, as consumers risk taking the plunge on a format that might not be here in a year or two due to a lack of support from the major vendors.

After all, HD DVD has poor major movie studio support, with only one studio deciding to go exclusive with HD DVD, with the majority of studios preferring the Blu-ray format and releasing exclusively in that format, although at least one studio has decided to have an each-way bet and, for the time being, back both formats.

In Europe, where Blu-ray hasn’t had the big PS3 boost enjoyed in Japan and the US, HD DVD is leading the race, but it’s something that Sony and the Blu-ray Disc Association will change over the course of 2007 due to more titles, the PS3 and falling prices for Blu-ray players, which should see Blu-ray movie sales far outstripping those of HD DVD as in the US.

But there’s one thing Blu-ray and HD DVD owners should also remember before plonking down their hard earned cash to buy a next-gen player – and that’s because next-gen recorders, often with a hard drive included as well, will be the ‘next big thing’ in the next generation war that has really barely begun.

To that end, 4x BD-R discs will soon be available, meaning recording data to Blu-ray discs can now happen much faster than before. At present, the fastest existing BD-R discs write data at 72Mbps, while the new discs are double that speed at 144Mbps, with blank discs and PC based Blu-ray recording drives due to go on sale in the second half of this year.

Our advice is to wait for the market to settle down further – prices are only going to come down for players, especially as recorders hit the market. And if you simply must have both formats, don’t but standard stand-alone players, but buy a PS3 with Blu-ray built-in, or buy an Xbox 360 and get the HD DVD external drive.

If you’re really feeling confused – hey, buy both! You’ll get much better features and capabilities than you’ll find on regular players, which at the price are no bargain when compared with the latest and greatest games consoles which do so very much more than just play games these days.

And as for a winner? It looks like it'll be Blu-ray, but sadly it's still far too early to declare a winner - no matter how much you want a particular side to win.
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